Saturday, August 02, 2008

Why I Think Obama Will Win

I have been very clear. In a recent comment, I predicted a pretty wide electoral college victory for Barack Obama. I think there are ample reasons for such confidence.

Yet, much of the left blogosphere has been in panic mode all week because of the ridiculous, racist Britney/Paris ad, and the constant barrage of attacks McCain has leveled against Obama. Jamison Foser's Media Matters column points out the odd juxtaposition of the media - correctly - pointing out that McCain's recent spate of attacks on Obama are all false, all the while pushing a narrative based upon these falsehoods. Brad at Sadly, No! has penned a couple doomsaying posts in which he sees the imminent death of the Obama candidacy and another Republican victory on the horizon. Digby used a review of late-night monologue jokes from 2004 to show that, even when lies are shown to be just that, they still sit out there, becoming fodder for our public discourse. We have been force-fed an endless stream of nonsensical, irrelevant, and not-very-vaguely racist nonsense, attempting to portray the presumptive Democratic nominee for the Presidency of the United States as "presumptuous", "arrogant", "overconfident" - because he acts like every single Presidential candidate has done in the past.

Now, it is quite possible that Obama could still lose, because there are any number of unknowns - Don Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns" as it were - that could effect the outcome. Yet, all other things being equal, and barring either catastrophe or some odd event, such as Pres. Bush suddenly bringing home American troops from Iraq, I think Obama will win. I also think that the Democrats, and many liberal bloggers, are making the single biggest mistake - they are forgetting the elections of two years ago, and what they portend for this fall.

Two years ago, the Republicans were so over-confident, they really didn't do much in terms of an overall strategy for the mid-term elections. Even as that long, hot summer bled in to a pleasant autumn, and there were more reports of scandals - most especially the Mark Foley business, and the involvement of the office of then-Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert in covering up his predilections - they continued on their "message" that the Democrats were all dangerous radicals, who once put in office would destroy our way of life. Even as polls showed the Democrats in a position to make serious gains in both Houses of Congress, both the press and liberals warned of all sorts of horrid events, not the least of which would be Rovian dirty-tricks to ensure a Republican victory. Some of my earliest posts, when I started this Mark II version of my blogging life, were in the waning hours before the fateful election of 2006. At the time, Karl Rove was still seen as some grand political genius, and in a now-infamous interview the weekend before the election, spoke of having "the math" in the Republican's favor. Except, of course, he didn't and it was all bluff, a bluff some Democrats and liberals fell for.

We have been so used to this kind of nonsense for so long that a lie like Rove's carries a certain cachet among those supposedly in the know. The entire premise of a site like The Daily Howler is that the press, somehow either befuddled or out-right partisan in its practices, does the work of framing our politics in such a way that Democrats are hapless to counter. Of course, in actual practice, the Democrats do appear hapless, and befuddled, incapable of figuring out how to deal with Republican tactics, whether it's House Democrats running scared from the buffoons on the other side of the aisle or Democratic Presidential candidates tacking in to the hot air coming from the McCain campaign.

The examples of liberal sites crowing about how Republican tactics, and the lapdog national media will create an environment in which McCain will eke out another Republican four years in the White House has a lot going for it as a thesis.

It is also wrong because, even more than in 2006, the American people are demanding things get done. One thing eight years of George Bush in the White House, six of them with a Republican Congress at his beck and call, have proved is that the Republicans are administratively bankrupt. They are incapable of governance. This is no grand conspiracy to prove the small-government types correct by screwing things up on purpose. No, they are really that bad.

John McCain has shown himself to be a desperate old man this past week. Unlike Obama, whom he accused of being willing to lose a war to win a political campaign - as scurrilous a personal attack as I've heard in a long time - McCain seems willing to show that he has absolutely no ideas, no policies, no plans. He is an empty suit who believes he should be President because he flew a fighter plane. That's it and that's all. He's got nothing.

We are in the doldrums, politically speaking, from now until after Labor Day. Between the Olympics and the national party conventions, and the end of the summer rush to get stuff done, no one is really paying attention right now. When people return to a certain routine of life that always emerges as summer ends, I have no doubt that, come November, Obama's win will be historic on a number of levels.

I do believe we have nothing to fear from the Republicans. They have no money. They have no ideas. They offer nothing but fear and trembling, war and bankruptcy. Everyone knows it. Their time has come and gone. It's that simple.

Virtual Tin Cup

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