Sunday, October 26, 2008

Updated Election Prediction

As I've been following the poll tracking as Obama's momentum carries him forward, and McCain continues to trip over his own feet and Sarah Palin's tongue (stay clean, folks), it seems I was being a tad, um, conservative in my initial prediction. I foresaw a range for an Obama win from 296 to 343 Electoral votes. Five days ago, I considered an Obama win with 343 Electoral College votes to be "wistful".

Using the current polling data, and assuming all things will continue as they have been (always dangerous, I know), I am now pretty comfortable predicting the possibility of Obama winning 378 Electoral College votes. Such a victory would not only be stunning, considering the relative closeness of our most recent Presidential elections (in 20 years, we've only had one President elected with a majority of the popular vote, George W. Bush in 2004 with barely over 51%, and only enough Electoral votes to carry him across the 270 threshold). I will hedge my bets - always an important thing to do - and stand by my earlier low-ball figure of 296 Electoral College votes for Barack Obama. I am just widening the range of possibility here.

Unlike two of our recent Electoral landslides - 1972 and 1984 - and like the 1980 Electoral College landslide (but not popular landslide) for Ronald Reagan, this will be a stunning repudiation of the party in power. While I do not believe it to be an endorsement of all sorts of progressive politics, it certainly indicates the intellectual, political, and moral bankruptcy of our current version of right-wing ideology. I believe that liberals should seize the moment, carpe the diem with both hands.

Virtual Tin Cup

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