In today's edition of The Daily Howler, Bob Somerby gets it mostly right, but on one big thing I think he is screamingly wrong. Go and read the whole thing because, despite Somerby's obsession with what he calls the "War against Gore", he calls the stupid by its name - stupid. Whether it's Hillary Clinton's baseball preference, Gore on Love Story, or the continued viability of Social Security, the mainstream press manifest a combination of ignorance, laziness, and outright bias in favor of Republicans that would be shocking were it not so commonplace.
On the other hand, I think his contention that the media will somehow swing the election to whomever the Republicans nominate next year is flat out wrong. I think this for good, historical reasons. Here's my take.
When Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, it was partly the result of a minor recession the country was only beginning to emerge from, along with Ross Perot's candidacy which drained off support for Bush. Clinton's success as President was always with a plurality, rather than a majority, at least until the Lewinsky/impeachment insanity. When it became quite clear that both the press and the Republicans hod gone off their nut about the whole thing, the people rallied around him, a fact studiously ignored with a haughty disdain from pundits and pols alike.
I believe the country was shifting ever so slowly towards the Democrats by 2000, and Gore's popular vote victory (I honestly do not know if the count in Florida favored him or Bush; there were so many problems from beginning to end with that process, I wanted an entirely new election, which was not provided for under Florida law) proved that. By its narrowness, it also showed that the voting public was still up for grabs. By 2004, even with a war going on, President Bush only won (barely) 51% of the popular vote (again, I have no opinion on any allegations concerning electoral hanky-panky in Ohio, although subsequent events in that state do give one pause).
Last year's mid-term Congressional elections showed that, even with favorable redistricting and the incumbent effect and more money, the Republicans could not hold on to Congress. They were aided, of course by the simple failure of the 109th Congress to do anything, plus the late-breaking Mark Foley scandal, which dragged House Speaker Dennis Hastert in to that particular pit of slime. Yet, even without the scandal, I think the outcome would have been the same. As it stands now, while both the President and Congress are low in the polls, they are so for different reasons.
Whomever the Democrats nominate next year, the Republicans will have the monumental task of distancing themselves from President Bush and his war on Iraq (plus his abject failure in pretty much every other policy matter) along with the added encumbrance of continuing to appeal to a base of support that is almost suicidally insane. Whether it's flipper-flopper Mit Romney or the truly insane Rudy Giuliani, or even, by some quirk of fate, that other Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee, what will stick to them is everything the public loathes about the past six and a half years. No matter what the Republicans do, no matter how stupid and biased the press may be, the public is tired of the Republican Party, of their wars without end for no purpose, of their lack of any substance on issues of vital importance such as health care.
I believe the pendulum, while not completing its swing, is far enough over that the Democrats can run a positive campaign, and just allow the self-destructive insanity of whichever Republican gets the nod to do its work. Just because some, or perhaps even most, among the national press corps are stupid, lazy, and mendacious, does not mean the public is. While the press and the Republicans continue to tell us the public is dumb, and doesn't know what is in its own best interest, the people continue to show a remarkable wisdom and preference for their own benefit that continues to go unnoticed by the sycophantic press.
So, my dual predictions. More of the same from a really awful mainstream press. A Democratic victory in 2008.
