With a tip of the hat to Matt Yglesias for pointing the way, I wanted to take a moment to talk about the utter failure of so many people to understand Europe. Before I go too far in that direction, however, I would like to point out a smaller, "popular" version of the Martin Feldsteins of the world. George Will quite frequently writes about European politics, and in so doing reveals that he actually stopped reading or considering any history or politics of Europe after the First World War.
One would think a second Thirty Years War, brought on by many of the same social and political forces as the first 300 years previously - rising tensions brought on by burgeoning socio-political currents and ideologies; the transition from certain political organizations to the rise of others; populations pressures; ethnic and national animosities and long-standing grievances - might convince those who believe themselves intelligent observers of politics and history to think more clearly and offer more tentative views on the nature of current trends in European politics.
American observers of Europe operate with a serious handicap when it comes to commenting on affairs European. For most of our national life, one preoccupation among many has been our own sense of smug satisfaction that we have avoided the kinds of occasional bouts of intramural slaughter for which Europe was dubiously famous. Now, a counter to this observation could be a mention of, oh, our own Civil War. Another counter might be our abnormally high rate of violent crime, a kind of low-level conflict barely kept in check by law enforcement, that offers a high attrition rate for the lower classes. Be these inconvenient facts as they may serve as a counter to our own sense of smug superiority, the on-going belief that we are somehow better than Europe creates a mental block. For some reason, few American observers of European politics really believe that the path towards continental unity, still not complete and replete with opportunities for conflict, is anything other than the utopian dream of ivory tower bureaucrats. It is, in fact, a very tentative, drawn-out result of certain deliberate policies that began soon after the end of the Second World War, as the continent began to seek ways not only to avoid future near-self-destruction, but to rebuild their political, economic, industrial, and civil infrastructure in ways that would keep such another event from happening. These policies were helped by the wisdom of certain political leaders, including Labor leaders in Britain, and most assuredly West Germany's Konrad Adenauer (Gaullist France took a different course in many ways, but much of that tradition has been set aside).
I recently wrote a post commemorating the monumental events of 20 years ago, yet failed to mention some of my own failed predictions. One of those which did not come about, I am happy to say, is my own belief that the lifting of Soviet-imposed dictatorships would reawaken historic animosities - between Hungary and Romania over Transylvania, for example; Poland and Germany over territory ceded by East Germany east of the Elbe after the Second World War; even Greek and Macedonian conflict over the use of the name "Macedonia" - and spark mid-level conflict and even war. Except for various ethnic cleansing operations in southern Europe as Yugoslavia crumbled, horrible as they were, the rest of Europe dealt with the return of their banished Central European cousins with both caution and intelligence. The demise of Czechoslovakia as a viable state, while sad, was done peaceably, and various territorial disputes either continue to be negotiated or have been settled through diplomacy. In other words, while I congratulated myself on being a bit more wise and thoughtful than many observers, I got this stuff wrong.
The reason I got it wrong is simple. I forgot that Europe is peopled by adults, in many ways. Those who comport themselves as commentators on American television and in newspaper columns tend to be infantile, at least in having the dubious distinction of being both ignorant and violently reactive rather than informed and cautiously thoughtful. One of the benefits of the internet is the opportunity to read serious, thoughtful, informed opinion from countries other than the United States.
Europe is doing well and fine, defying most of the predictions of doom, death, destruction, that we periodically read about in American newspapers. I think it might be wise for some folks to pay attention to actual events - especially events that have occurred in the past hundred or so years - and rely far less on ideologies that care little for facts.
