It is easy enough to make fun of Bill Kristol's constant calls for the United States to prepare for war with . . . fill-in-the-blank. It's like Tourette's Syndrome. He can't help himself.
Let us, for the moment, set aside the temptation to either ignore him or laugh at him or roll our eyes at him, or feel icky because he is so casual in his preference for violence. Some questions that aren't asked might be in order.
Let us consider his statements on the merits. His argument is that if the United States threatened war, or even some kind of military strike short of all-out war, with Iran, it would be induced to act in ways that are more amenable to our interests. I would ask him a simple question - why should Iran consider the United States a credible threat? Currently painfully extricating ourselves from a long, bloody occupation of Iraq that was ill-conceived, poorly planned, with no thought given to what would happen once the initial combat was over and we became an occupying force, Iran has plenty of evidence on its doorstep as to what our military is and is not capable of. On its other border, we are bogged down in Afghanistan, like pretty much every major power since Alexander the Great has been.
We are economically weak, militarily and strategically stretched almost to the breaking point, and would be if we actually carried out military operations in Iran, acting without any diplomatic cover whatsoever. Furthermore, it would seriously undermine our relations with Russia, of far greater import for any number of reasons than any benefit we might potentially gain from ending (if it were possible) the revolutionary rule in Iran.
What Kristol fail to understand - for reasons either of ignorance of simple stupidity - is that any threat of military action has to be credible. With the possible exception of launching some cruise missiles and attacks from remote-controlled drones, not to mention the unthinkable use of nuclear weapons, our threats just aren't credible. Half-measures, such as remote attacks by missile, would only bring down the wrath of most of the world upon us. The use of nuclear weapons might provoke a response that even Kristol, with his measured disdain for world opinion, would not like. How would it feel to instantly become a pariah, perhaps even the target of a concerted effort on the part of the world community to undermine our government?
Any threat of action has to be, at the very least, credible. Right now, ours would not be.
