We are just a few weeks away from the Congressional mid-term elections. It seems pretty clear that Republican gains will be substantial, although the prospect of taking over either house grows dimmer. All the same, it is obvious that two things are happening that are effecting the way people plan to vote - many of those who voted for Obama, and previously for Democratic candidates in the previous two national elections will either be voting for Republican candidates, or not voting; many supporters of Obama are less than enthusiastic, to say the least, about his performance in office.
As to the first, related, phenomena, anger at the Congressional wing of the Democratic Party makes sense. When they took over both Houses of Congress in 2006, they not only seemed poised to act on long-standing Democratic legislative initiatives that had been side-lined by the Republican majority, but also to pursue a far-more aggressive agenda toward outside interests that had become increasingly influential over legislative activity. Alas, almost immediately, both the House and Senate signaled their intent to pursue business as usual by putting Steny Hoyer in charge of the House and Harry Reid in charge of the Senate. Political moderates - Harry Reid is pro-life - neither has actively pursued much more than making sure Democrats maintain control of both Houses. While this Congress has been successful at passing some important, even historic legislation, that legislation has been purchased at far too high a price. Health care reform, in particular, was made far more complicated by the refusal, from the outset, to offer a serious public option. Initial regulatory reforms of the financial sector also seem inadequate to the task, and were largely constructed with input from the industry itself.
Other items on the liberal to-do list - in particular the long sought-after reform of labor law known as "card check", allowing for easier organization of previously non-union industries - have simply disappeared from the Congressional radar. Cap-and-trade, after passing the House, died a very painful, public death in the Senate after Republican obstruction became impossible to overcome. With the possibility that they shall hold even more seats in the next Congress, the likelihood of serious legislation regarding energy consumption as it impacts global warming looks even less likely.
For these reasons, as well as the far-too-cozy relationship the President has maintained with the centers of the financial industry (the creators of this mess now tasked with cleaning it up, but without having to pay any serious public price for it), the Democratic Party is losing voters. Either they are switching sides - far better to get corporate whores who acknowledge their pimps than those that pretend a virtue they do not have - or refusing to vote at all. Both are rational responses. At the core of public frustration and anger at Congress is the understanding that neither party has the public interest at heart. At least, with Republicans, voters know they aren't getting a pig in a poke.
The President and First Lady have hit the campaign trail over the past week, and are trying to stir up the same kind of enthusiasm that existed during his Presidential run two years ago. The problem, of course, is that while the President and his wife remain personally popular among Democrats, his record shouts far louder than his calls for continued hope and the possibility of change. While hard-core right-wing voters are certainly motivated by a visceral hatred for the President, Democratic voters are less inclined to consider voting against the possibility of a Republican Congress, since the prospects of actual legislative harm is minimized by the probability that the President will veto anything actively contrary to the public good. So, whether it's a minimized Democratic majority hamstrung by Republican obstruction, or a castrated Republican majority limited by the President's veto pen, the end results are likely to be the same for the next Congress. This is a reality Democratic voters recognize. The result is simple - their votes aren't going to matter that much this time around.
The next two years will result in a legislative holding pattern, no matter the outcome of the elections. Is it any wonder that folks are planning to stay home?
Virtual Tin Cup
