The problem with the claim that Iran is "months away" from nuclear weapons technology is that Woolsey seems to be talking out of a bodily orifice not normally used for speech. To quote from the Think Progress piece:
Woolsey is doing nothing more than fear-mongering when he says Iran could have a nuclear bomb in “a few months.” In fact, his assertion of an impending nuclear weapon in Iran is contradicted by experts on nuclear weapons, including the CIA.
“Iran is still probably five to 10 years away from gaining the ability to make nuclear fuel or nuclear bombs,” according to Joseph Cirincione, the director for nuclear policy at the Center for American Progress. In May, Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the UN’s the International Atomic Energy Agency, said “even if Iran wanted to go for a nuclear weapon, it would not be before the end of this decade or sometime in the middle of the next decade,” an estimate that echoed the view of the CIA.
Additionally, Woolsey is a suspect source for claims of urgency when it comes to nuclear weapons, having repeatedly hyped Saddam Hussein’s nuclear capability during the build up to war with Iraq.
So, the CIA and the IAEA, whose job it is to actually monitor the situation and interpret the data, say a decade or more. Woolsey says a few months. Granted, the CIA's track record on these kinds of things isn't always very good (they really saw the collapse of communism in Central Europe coming, didn't they). Mohammed ElBaradei, however, has an excellent track record, and since his call tallies with the CIA, it seems to me pretty trustworthy.
Were the stakes not so high - the Bush Administration seems hell-bent on military confrontation with Iran - this whole exercise would be funny. Instead, it is quite sad, and a bit frightening. Pretty soon, we will have Dick Cheney out ther talking about Iranian intelligence officials meeting with al Qaeda operative in Prague. . .
All of this begs certain questions, not the least of which are these:
- Why does the Bush Administration not pursue a tougher line with countries that actually sponsor the kind of terrorism we have experienced? Countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and Yemen? Actually, I think that question answers itself . . .
- When is Bush going to pursue Osama bin Laden?
- Will Bush take us to war with Iran absent a Congressional mandate, even a new AUMF? If so, it seems to me we are heading down a much more dangerous road, because the Administration is trying the same tricks that seemed to work with Iraq. The public, however, isn't buying this time; that doesn't mean they won't go ahead and do something anyway. After all, why put a couple Carrier Battle groups in the Persian Gulf if they can't have a little fun, right?
